Homework 1.

Due: Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Submission: By plain text e-mail to lboloni@eecs.ucf.edu.
  In the subject write: EEL 6938, HW 1


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1. The behavioral controversy:

Read the following papers (linked from the class webpage)

*. Alonso Vera and Herbert Simon: Situated action: a symbolic interpretation
*. William Clancey: Situated action: a neuropsychological interpretation.
Response to Vera and Simon.

Summarize the two papers in about 500 words each. 
In about 1000 words, write an analyis contrasting of the arguments in the
two papers. Also include your personal opinion.

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2. Marylin and the Goat. 

Read the Wikipedia writeup about the game show problem:

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monty_Hall_problem&oldid=108494175

This link shows how one of the greatest mathematicians of the century was 
tricked by the problem:

http://www.zblmath.fiz-karlsruhe.de/MATH/general/erdos/textpdf/vazsonyi/bayes.pdf

Run a simulation of the problem, assigning random original values for the
location of the prize as well as for the original choice (this is called a 
Monte-Carlo simulation).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_Simulation

Try out three strategies:
  * After a door is opened stick to your choice.
  * After a door is opened, switch your choice.
  * After a door is opened, throw a coin whether you switch or not. 
  
What are the winning rates? 
Try to provide an explanation for somebody who do not know probability, 
information theory etc.

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3. MDPs and POMDPs

Read the following paper (linked from the class webpage):

Haili Song et al - Optimal Electricity Supply Bidding by Markov Decision Process

(a) Summarize the paper in about 500 words.
(b) Give three other examples where the same or similar techniques can be
applied. (There are some immediate examples, eg. water supply bidding - but try
to be creative!)

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